My first thoughts upon hearing of the Jay Cutler to the Chicago Bears trade details were that it sure did seem like an awful lot for a Quarterback with a 17-20 career record and that the Broncos would certainly be laughing all the way to Radio City Music Hall on April 25th. Two first round picks, a 3rd Rounder, and a capable NFL starting quarterback in Kyle Orton, who seems to keep getting better year after year for a guy who’s passer rating was 16th or so in the league and has never been to the playoffs. Only after these draft picks have been made, and the careers of all of the players involved have run its course, will we have the true answer. But as I analyzed the trade in a little more detail, it might not seem as lopsided at first glance.
After first comparing the stats and careers of Cutler and Orton, I started by looking at the ‘NFL Draft Value Chart,’ made famous years ago by Jimmy Johnson during his tenure in Dallas. When considering trading draft picks, this value chart has become the standard by which most, if not all, General Managers and Directors of Player Personnel use to gauge the relative value of each draft pick throughout the seven round draft. The Chicago Bears traded their first round pick this year, #18 overall, their first round pick in 2010, and this year’s third round pick, #84 overall, along with their starting QB Kyle Orton, a 4th Round pick in 2005 and #106 overall. Now, I have taken the assumption that the Bears, a 9-7 team a year ago, will make the playoffs next year now that they have the franchise Quarterback they’ve been missing for 30 years.
So with that in mind, here’s the ‘math,’ according to the value chart. The #18 pick this year is worth 900 points, the 3rd rounder is worth 170, and an average playoff finish next year by the Bears would equate to a 25th overall pick and would be worth 720 points. This totals 1,790 points (900 + 170 + 720 = 1,790) or just short of a number 4 overall pick. Now, if you add in Kyle Orton, a former 4th rounder worth 82 points, factor in 300 points or so for his 4-5 years of experience you have what works out to be approximately 2,200 points or a #3 overall selection.
Now Cutler was drafted #11 overall in 2006, and given his progress to date and his pure physical talent, I think you could argue that he is definitely worth a #3 overall selection. Had the 2006 draft been done over with what we know now, I’m pretty sure that the Tennessee Titans would’ve chosen Jay Cutler over Vince Young with the #3 overall selection in a heartbeat.
So there you have it, a little more analytical way to look at the Cutler deal. I still think the Broncos still have the edge in this one, just from a sheer number of quality players standpoint, but it’s definitely not as one-sided as it may look. But as with all trades, only time will tell who got the better of this blockbuster deal, but it’ll be fun second guessing it for years to come.
After first comparing the stats and careers of Cutler and Orton, I started by looking at the ‘NFL Draft Value Chart,’ made famous years ago by Jimmy Johnson during his tenure in Dallas. When considering trading draft picks, this value chart has become the standard by which most, if not all, General Managers and Directors of Player Personnel use to gauge the relative value of each draft pick throughout the seven round draft. The Chicago Bears traded their first round pick this year, #18 overall, their first round pick in 2010, and this year’s third round pick, #84 overall, along with their starting QB Kyle Orton, a 4th Round pick in 2005 and #106 overall. Now, I have taken the assumption that the Bears, a 9-7 team a year ago, will make the playoffs next year now that they have the franchise Quarterback they’ve been missing for 30 years.
So with that in mind, here’s the ‘math,’ according to the value chart. The #18 pick this year is worth 900 points, the 3rd rounder is worth 170, and an average playoff finish next year by the Bears would equate to a 25th overall pick and would be worth 720 points. This totals 1,790 points (900 + 170 + 720 = 1,790) or just short of a number 4 overall pick. Now, if you add in Kyle Orton, a former 4th rounder worth 82 points, factor in 300 points or so for his 4-5 years of experience you have what works out to be approximately 2,200 points or a #3 overall selection.
Now Cutler was drafted #11 overall in 2006, and given his progress to date and his pure physical talent, I think you could argue that he is definitely worth a #3 overall selection. Had the 2006 draft been done over with what we know now, I’m pretty sure that the Tennessee Titans would’ve chosen Jay Cutler over Vince Young with the #3 overall selection in a heartbeat.
So there you have it, a little more analytical way to look at the Cutler deal. I still think the Broncos still have the edge in this one, just from a sheer number of quality players standpoint, but it’s definitely not as one-sided as it may look. But as with all trades, only time will tell who got the better of this blockbuster deal, but it’ll be fun second guessing it for years to come.
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1 comment:
Bus Cooke the aganet for Favre and Cutler should be banned like asbestos.
Nice advising influence there for your two babies Favre and Cutler.
Isn't funny the teams who can never get their QB situation straight were the ones going after Cutler. I wonder why?
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